A quiet shift in what American buyers want is about to move the sales rankings. Cox Automotive forecasts Hyundai will edge past Ford in third-quarter US sales for the first time, powered by strong hybrid demand and gas prices near $4.48 a gallon.
- Cox projects Hyundai at 511,421 Q3 units against Ford’s 504,172, a first-ever flip.
- High gas prices are pushing buyers toward hybrids, where Ford and GM have thin lineups.
- Toyota is also narrowing the yearly gap with GM, trailing by under 121,100 units.
What the Forecast Actually Says
Cox Automotive released a new forecast pointing to a change that hasn’t happened before. Hyundai Motor, counting its Kia sibling and luxury Genesis brand, is expected to report a 6.5% year-over-year gain from July through September, landing at 511,421 vehicles. Ford, over the same stretch, is projected to slip 7.1% to 504,172.
If those numbers hold, Hyundai would take the No. 3 spot in US sales, sitting behind only General Motors and Toyota. It’s a forecast, not a final tally, so the real figures could move. But the margin between the two automakers is thin enough to make the projection worth watching.
The broader market has held up better than many expected this year. Cox raised its 2026 US forecast by roughly 2%, to 16.1 million units. New and used sales are both down from a year ago, though not by much, which points to a market that’s steadier than the headlines might suggest.
Why Hybrids Are Doing the Heavy Lifting
The story behind the numbers comes down to what’s in the showroom. With gas prices sitting at a AAA national average of $4.48 a gallon, more shoppers are looking at hybrids to soften their fuel bills. Hyundai and Kia have leaned into that demand with a wide hybrid lineup, and it’s paying off.
Detroit hasn’t kept pace here. GM currently offers a hybrid version of only its Corvette, while Ford’s hybrid choices run to the Maverick and F-150 pickups. When buyers walk in wanting a fuel-sipping option and can’t find one, they tend to look elsewhere. That gap has left room for automakers with deeper hybrid rosters to pick up the slack.
Ford has faced a second, separate headwind. Production of its important F-Series pickups was disrupted after two supplier fires last year, and the company has been working to recover that lost ground. Pickups and large SUVs matter enormously to Ford’s totals, so any hit there shows up fast in the sales sheet.
Detroit’s Bet on V-8 Power
The domestic automakers are steering in a different direction. GM, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis have renewed their focus on V-8 engines in bigger pickups and SUVs, encouraged by the Trump administration’s rollback of emissions and fuel economy rules. That’s a wager on buyers who still want size and power.
The trouble is timing. Elevated pump prices are cooling interest in the thirstiest trucks and SUVs, exactly the vehicles the Detroit three count on most. Cox analysts flagged those product decisions as a notable choice, and one that looks harder to defend while fuel costs stay high.
Toyota’s Own Climb Up the Ladder
Hyundai isn’t the only company reshuffling the board. Toyota, long a hybrid leader, is closing in on GM for the annual crown. Cox expects GM to post a 5.2% Q3 decline to 671,706 units, while Toyota is projected to gain 2.2% to 642,707. For the full year, Toyota trails GM by fewer than 121,100 units.
Should Toyota finish ahead, it would be only the second time it has ever outsold GM in annual US sales. The first came in 2021, when supply chain snarls scrambled production across the industry. Stellantis, meanwhile, is forecast to dip 1.3% in the quarter but finish the year up 2.8% as its turnaround plan takes shape.
What Shoppers Can Take From This
For anyone car shopping right now, the lesson is simple. Fuel efficiency has moved from a nice extra to a real deciding factor, and the brands offering the widest hybrid choices are the ones gaining ground. If a lower gas bill matters to you, it’s worth comparing hybrid options across several automakers before signing anything. The market is rewarding that kind of homework, and the sales rankings are starting to reflect it.